What is the Red Sox' Biggest Problem?
Sometimes you can be your own worst enemy.
Hi Everyone,
I hope you enjoyed my interview with Dr. Palmateer last week. It was a lot of fun to put together, and I hope you found it as illuminating as I did. I had a good time playing with new media formats, so I will continue to do so here. Today’s piece includes an audio option.
On Saturday, Pete Abraham wrote a piece for the Boston Globe recapping the latest offseason moves before Spring Training kicks off later this month. However, a few sentences about the Red Sox stood out:
“The Sox are banking on (The Big Three prospects) Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer to have a major impact this season and aren’t willing to go beyond short-term, team-friendly deals for free agent hitters.”
“Agents have come away believing that (Manager) Alex Cora and (Team President) Sam Kennedy want to add a middle-of-the-order hitter. But (Chief Baseball Officer) Craig Breslow, (Owner) John Henry, and (Chairman) Tom Werner have been cautious.”
Of course, this made all of Red Sox Nation groan. Not because this is new information; there have already been pieces written about the internal division within the organization. No, Abraham is simply the latest in a long line of reporters who are highlighting the Red Sox’ biggest problem: communication.
The Red Sox’ communication problem has two parts, the first of which is quite simple. Clearly, there are two competing visions for the Boston Red Sox right now, and they’re doing a poor job of keeping that disconnect secret, which only makes the organization look worse:
Breslow, Henry, and Werner are looking to replicate the success of the Tampa Bay Rays and the Orioles in the late 2010s and 2020s. They want to use the Big Three prospects to fill the holes in the team’s roster, have those prospects live up to their expectations, and propel the Red Sox into contention without spending the dollars they normally would in free agency.
Cora and Kennedy want to take a more traditional, time-tested approach. They want the Big Three but also want to augment the roster with a more experienced power bat, and they are willing to spend money to do so. The spending on veteran talent, or lack thereof, is arguably what has kept the Rays and Orioles from a World Series title.
The Red Sox need to figure out what their vision is before unpacking the second part of this problem. Although the Red Sox have not made the playoffs since 2021, in every subsequent offseason, someone in the leadership (usually Kennedy) publicly assures fans that they are building a competitive, playoff-caliber team. This rhetoric truly peaked in 2023, when Tom Werner assured us that the Red Sox would go “Full Throttle” that offseason. Which they didn’t. The Red Sox would be “in” on various free agents but would fail to close on a deal. Meanwhile, the rhetoric surrounding the rebuilding farm system grew stronger with each offseason. The 2024 Red Sox, while being a .500 ballclub, exceeded expectations, leading Sam Kennedy to say this:
“Even if it takes us over the CBT (Competitive Balance Threshold), our priority is 90 to 95 wins, and winning the American League East, and winning the division for multiple years.”
Okay, great. However, at the time of publication, the Red Sox currently have a payroll of $216 million1, $25 million below the first threshold of $241 million. The Red Sox haven’t had a top-10 payroll since 2022. As for 90 to 95 wins and winning the AL East, time will tell, but based on the newly released PECOTA projections, the Sox look like they might end up back in last place with 78 wins (I think PECOTA is being very glass-half-empty).
The team has fixed the rotation by trading for Garrett Crochet and signing Walker Buehler, but there’s still a need for a right-handed hitter to balance the lineup. Craig Breslow said as much in December:
“Obviously, our lineup is pretty imbalanced in terms of being left-handed heavy. Figuring out how to balance that out, take advantage of the short left field wall. We saw the effect of a guy like Tyler and 30-plus home runs as a right-handed power hitter in the middle of the lineup.”
In the weeks and months since, there’s been nothing but rumors about adding Alex Bregman or trading for Nolan Arenado, both of which come with high yearly costs for several years. For example, Bregman is seeking a five or six-year deal, and the Red Sox won’t go higher than four. With just weeks to go until Spring Training, there is great anxiety amongst fans that this Red Sox team will miss the playoffs for the fourth straight year, something conceivably intolerable for a team with Boston’s pedigree. So why does this keep happening? Why do the Red Sox keep saying that they’re going to call us when all we get is a “U up” text at two in the morning? Do they not care that they aren’t delivering?
Many fans believe that John Henry and co. are no longer interested in the Red Sox being anything more than an asset in the Fenway Sports Group portfolio. I disagree because that would make this a business problem, not a communication problem. If part one of the communication problem is the vision internally, part two is articulating the vision externally to us.
It seems to me that the leadership thinks that telling us what they think we want to hear is a successful strategy. But we only want to hear that money is being spent and free agent talent is being added IF that is actually the plan. It seems like improving the team is happening internally by calling up prospects, and that is okay. That is a legitimate strategy that we know has had success. But Sam Kennedy, Craig Breslow, Tom Werner, hell, even Chaim Bloom should’ve said that and owned it. Would Red Sox Nation have liked it? No, almost definitely not, not at the time. But because we can see it happening, we would’ve bought in sooner.
The fact of the matter is, acting like it’s 2004 isn’t working. It’s not 2007, 2013, or 2018, so let’s not talk like it. Baseball has changed so much in the last 20 years. Nobody disagrees. Have confidence in this vision and embrace it. This team is clearly one that is being built around a young, talented farm system. This team is cheaper as a result, and all of that is okay so long as you don’t go around telling people you want to go over the CBT Threshold! The best way to repair trust in a frustrated fan base is to over-communicate. Share your vision with us. Believe in that vision to succeed. And when it does, even the doubters will get on board. Until you’re ready, please, I beg of you, for both of our sake, if you see a camera and a microphone coming towards you, turn around and run the other way.
Thank you guys for reading. As always, if you have any questions or comments, email them to notfrombostonsubstack@gmail.com.
This is one of your best pieces!! 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻